Port Crisis Ahead? Longshore Labor Talks and Election Pressure

For 25 years, longshore labor has been a central topic at TPM (Trans-Pacific Maritime Conference), and 2025 will be no exception. The expiration of the dockworkers' contract on the East and Gulf Coasts on September 30, 2024 could lead to the first strike since 1977 if a new deal isn't reached. This strike would halt 57% of U.S. container volume and over 20% of imports by value, which is particularly critical during the presidential campaign.

The ILA is demanding a 75% wage increase over six years, a significant jump from the previous $1-per-hour raise, as they aim to capitalize on the ocean carriers' post-pandemic profits.

This labor-management issue is closely tied to the election. Despite the ILA's resistance to Biden administration intervention, there will likely be significant pressure to keep trade moving. Some experts believe that with strong government intervention, any strike will be brief, easing concerns for shippers.

Especially with potential disruptions from an ILA strike, ocean rates are expected to rise, and cargo volumes are already shifting to West Coast ports in anticipation of issues on the East and Gulf Coasts.